A maximum entropy climate – Earth in equilibrium

The energy balance of the planet is stark where the climate system meets space.  The change in heat energy content of the planet – and the work done in melting ice or vaporizing water – is approximately equal to energy in less energy out.  There are minor contributions with heat from inside the planet and the heat of combustion of fossil fuels that make it approximate but still precise enough to use.   Energy imbalances – the difference between energy in and energy out – result in ocean warming or cooling – and Earth’s strong exponential radiance response – to drive maximum entropy to transient equilibriums.  The oceans are by far the greatest part of Earth’s energy storage – and the Argo record gives us a real sense of whether the planet is warming or cooling – or both at different times.

Δ(H&W) ≈ Ein – Eout

Satellites measure changes well but are not so good at absolute values.  Energy in and out varies all the time.   Energy in varies on annual and seasonal seasonal scales.  Outgoing energy varies with cloud, ice, water vapor, dust…  Where Δ(H&W) = 0 at points of local maximums and minimums then energy in = energy out and there is maximum entropy in the Earth’s energy dynamic.  The idea is to assign a zero to heat change in oceans at local climate ocean heat means – about the middle of an annual cycle.  The ocean heat term should then co-vary instantaneously with the accumulating sum of average monthly power flux at TOA –  solar in less net out arbitrarily zeroed at the same time as ocean heat.

Ein-Eout - Argo ocean heat

Figure 1:  Cumulative Argo ocean heat – 0 to1900m – 65S to 65N – (blue) – degrees C – versus cumulative monthly radiant imbalance – (orange) – W/m2

What I find intriguing is the steady increase – with the annual cycles – in cumulative energy in less energy out.  Could this be the smoking, devastated crater of CAGW?   I suppose so.  Ideally – we would need centuries more data to tell.

The change in heat energy content of the planet – and the work done in melting ice or vaporising water – is approximately equal to energy in less energy out.  There are minor contributions with heat from inside the planet and the heat of combustion of fossil fuels that make it approximate but still precise enough to use.   Energy imbalances – the difference between energy in and energy out – result in ocean warming or cooling.  The oceans are by far the greatest part of Earth’s energy storage – and Argo record gives us a real sense of whether the planet is warming or cooling – or both at different times.

earth's orbit

Earth’s – large annual variation from the Sun.

Smaller and longer term changes seen in ‘anomalies’.

CERES_EBAF-TOA_Ed4.0_anom_Incoming_Solar_Flux_March-2000toNovember-2017

Net energy out anomaly -(SW+LW) – show warming up by convention.  The annual cycle is added to changes from cloud, ice, vegetation, dust, emissions, climate change…  Change it does.  And changes in both IR and SW – in response to both the flow of energy through the system and internal responses.

CERES_EBAF-TOA_Ed4.0_TOA_Net_Flux-Clear-Sky_March-2000toNovember-2017

Such as the 2008 Pacific anomalies.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8703

And what looks like a positive warming trend over the 21st century.

 

CERES_EBAF-TOA_Ed4.0_anom_TOA_Net_Flux-All-Sky_March-2000toNovember-2017

Reflected SW is the result incoming SW and cloud and north/south ocean/land asymmetry.

Cloud in the Pacific… low over cold oceans – low, close celled marine strato-cumulus – higher – more open celled with higher cloud bases over warm oceans.  Cooling – with more reflection in the early years of the millennia – nada bid a boom in the interim and the recent warm Pacific warming.    With low cloud – SW dominates over IR changes.  The cloud signal is this asynchronous relationship of cloud and IR and SW.    But there are land use, water vapor, aerosols, rain… and many other changes.  Cloud impedes IR emissions and reflect SW.  The IR graph at the bottom is a mirror of SW anomalies showing the role of cloud in 21st century changes in the energy budget.

CERES_EBAF-TOA_Ed4.0_anom_TOA_Shortwave_Flux-All-Sky_March-2000toNovember-2017

There is less reflected light in the early years followed by little net change and a recent warming associated with a warm eastern Pacific.

CERES_EBAF-TOA_Ed4.0_TOA_Longwave_Flux-All-Sky_March-2000toNovember-2017

CERES_EBAF-TOA_Ed4.0_anom_TOA_Longwave_Flux-All-Sky_March-2000toJuly-2017

 

 

 

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6 Responses to A maximum entropy climate – Earth in equilibrium

  1. afonzarelli says:

    ~hadsst3 global, hadsst3 northern hemisphere & hadsst3 southern hemisphere from 1990 to 2018

    • afonzarelli says:

      Robert, it’s interesting how SSTs dovetail with the TOA shortwave flux. The decrease in reflective shortwave gives rise to a yearly cycling of northern hemisphere SSTs beginning in 2003. (very warm anomaly during the year only to cool off in winter) And once again, another decrease in reflected shortwave gives rise to an even greater amplitude of cycling beginning in 2014. (i wonder if it’s really as simple as i have it laid out here)…

      • Cloud albedo changes with SST – and there are a couple of annual cycles in there. Orbital eccentricity and north/south asymmetry. I am thinking about this – a work in progress as I originally said.

  2. Ragnaar says:

    It seems the problem is that as the GMST rises, it gets aborbed by the oceans at a rate proportional to its rise. To counter that, one could say it will be back shortly.

    I don’t agree. Water stores warmth. That is what makes it a good transport medium. It stores it enough to bring it from Florida to England at about 2 miles an hour.

    • The data is ocean heat – and incoming energy less outgoing. Radiant imbalances show up somewhere as more or less heat in the system.

    • afonzarelli says:

      To say “it will be back shortly”, i think, is a misnomer anyway. As the little imp of “Slime-it, etc.” is one to say, ocean warming simply constitutes a lag in the system. The ocean is a great big heat sink that may take centuries to fill up. Once it finally reaches a state of equilibrium, it should stop “sinking” heat and the surface temps should resemble warming that occurs on land. (but, then again, that degree of warming will take centuries to occur)…

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