Stocks and flows in the Earth system

Stocks and flows exist at the cellular to planetary scales.  Stocks are an accumulation of some sort.  It may be water, heat or biological.  Water, heat and populations ebb and flow.   Mass and energy are conserved.  Water and heat can thus be treated as elemental calculus entities.  Populations may need equation free prediction

dS/dt = inflows – outflows  –  where S is stock in storage.

With root zone water storage – the change is the gains and losses above and deep percolation loss below.  The root zone should be full of fungi, worms, nematodes, etc.  That facilitates breakdown of substrate to release nutrients – and intercepts, infiltrates and stores rainfall.  Good for dry weather flow, aquifers and sea level rise – as much as that is.  And good to sequester 80 GtC (Rattan Lal).  Even more with reclaiming desert and restoring rangeland and woodland.

This-equation-is-used-to-balance-the-change-in-soil-water-storage-in-the-root-zone-of-a

So let’s get exciting.  The oceans are the global heat store – 92% of total as compared to 4%  in water and vapor – and 4%  in the atmosphere – much at the surface as  latent heat.   The oceans warm or cool to 100 odd meters with sunlight, heat is transported on currents and eddies to depth and returned to the surface by convection.  Warmer surfaces emit more energy – to the fourth power of temperature – strong Earth system stabilization.  The energy flow interacts with the atmosphere on its way out to space.  At the edge of the atmosphere there is only radiant energy – in and out – through a window that includes bi-stable and nonlinear closed and open cell cloud.  Closed – high albedo – cells persist for longer in a cooler atmosphere caused by cooler ocean surfaces.  Convection cells rise in the atmosphere to a cooler level and rain out – leaving an open cell – from the centre given the presence of nucleating aerosols and sufficient internal kinetic energy.

“Marine stratocumulus cloud decks forming over dark, subtropical oceans are regarded as the reflectors of the atmosphere.1 The decks of low clouds 1000’s of km in scale reflect back to space a significant portion of the direct solar radiation and therefore dramatically increase the local albedo of areas otherwise characterized by dark oceans below.2,3 This cloud system has been shown to have two stable states: open and closed cells. Closed cell cloud systems have high cloud fraction and are usually shallower, while open cells have low cloud fraction and form thicker clouds mostly over the convective cell walls and therefore have a smaller domain average albedo.4–6 Closed cells tend to be associated with the eastern part of the subtropical oceans, forming over cold water (upwelling areas) and within a low, stable atmospheric marine boundary layer (MBL), while open cells tend to form over warmer water with a deeper MBL. Nevertheless, both states can coexist for a wide range of environmental conditions.”  (Koren 2017)

“Off the west coast of South America, an intricate network of clouds presented a spectacular view to the Moderate Resolution Imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite when it flew overhead on September 30, 2005.”  https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/5904/cloud-formations-off-the-west-coast-of-south-america

Cooler ocean surfaces arise from upwelling of cold and nutrient rich water on the eastern Pacific margin.  Upwelling in both the north and south has variability over months to millennia – driven by solar butterflies and polar annular modes over much of the global ocean tropics.

“These natural climate phenomena can sometimes hide global warming caused by human activities. Or they can have the opposite effect of accentuating it.” Josh Willis

A hint of decadal variability in the Pacific can be seen in Claus Wolter’s MEI.  Largely blue to 1976, red to 1998 and a mixed bag since.

“El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon to cause global climate variability on interannual time scales. Here we attempt to monitor ENSO by basing the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) on the six main observed variables over the tropical Pacific. These six variables are: sea-level pressure (P), zonal (U) and meridional (V) components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature (S), surface air temperature (A), and total cloudiness fraction of the sky (C).”  https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

On the theory that the Pacific window closes with more upwelling and opens with less – cumulative changes in MEI are a proxy for ocean temperature change – as palely reflected in global surface temps.

mei v hadcrut

It bears out something that has been understood for some time – decadal to millennial variability in a climatologically significant subsystem.  As of October 2018 the Pacific state is holding – still not doing anything much.   As a forced charge/discharge oscillator – the next major event seems likely to be La Niña.  With more southerlies busting up the South American coast and curling out at the equator across the Pacific– I’m predicting it sooner rather than later.  Beyond that is perpetual hydrology and climate variability that seems to get worse the longer the data series (e.g. Koutsoyiannis, 2015).

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-137.97,1.50,280

 

 

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ENSO holding neutral

My guess is that there is not enough energy – geopotential or heat – in the western Pacific for another even moderate El Niño to emerge.  A large El Niño needs time to recharge as warm surface water is piled up by Walker circulation in the western Pacific.

The 15/16 El Niño happened – followed by technically a La Niña Modoki and a small La Niña.  What has it been doing in the last month?

It all starts with this – the trigger for nonlinear and powerful feedbacks in wind, cloud and current across the Pacific Ocean.   The index of the polar annular mode – or Antarctic Oscillation reflects polar and sub-polar surface pressures.  Cloudy and stormy winds circle the Antarctic with nothing impeding.  Higher polar surface pressures pushes winds and storms into lower latitudes where they fetch up on the South American coast and feed into the South Pacific gyre.  Cold southern water flows towards the equator where the currents whirl westward where it is added to with colder deep ocean upwelling kicking of La Niña and the ENSO recharge phase

The Antarctic Oscillation has been negative – more meridional blocking and south Pacific gyre flow – in recent weeks but is forecast positive at a crucial time in the seasonal evolution of the Pacific system.

It involves Walker and Hadley – iconic names in Earth system science – circulation.  The earth,nullschool total precipitable water and windfields overlays show high moisture air moving across the north Pacific to the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea and South America.  I have highlighted a wet low.   The south Pacific Ocean gyre  kicks up a notch with negative AAO – blowing up the South American coast, diverging across the Pacific, south along the Australian coast – taking warm waters – to rejoin the circum-polar current and be spun up again by the southern polar annular mode (SAM).

ENS -30-9-18

Winds and the following cold, Southern Ocean currents are fetching up on the equator as we speak – driven there by a large high pressure blocking vortex west of  South America.   Is this enough to kick in La Niña feedbacks across the Pacific?  Doesn’t look like it just yet.

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Space and ocean climate monitoring in the 21 st century

Where the atmosphere meets space – all energy is electromagnetic.  Incoming from the Sun and outgoing from reflected light and emitted heat.  At most times incoming and outgoing energy at the top of atmosphere (TOA) are not equal and Earth warms or cools – mostly in the oceans that are by far the largest planetary heat store.  Conservation of energy gives the first differential global energy equation.

The equation can be written as the change in heat in oceans is approximately equal to energy in less energy out at TOA.

Δ(ocean heat) ≈ Ein – Eout

Ocean heat is measured by the Argo project – accessed via the ‘Global Marine Argo Atlas‘.  Radiant flux – a power term – is measured by the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project – accessed via the CERES data products page.  Keeping things in original units – a cumulative space based power flux imbalance is compared to ocean temperature.  They should of course co-vary – providing a cross validation of data sets.

ceres v argo  Figure 1 – CERES in red and Argo in blue

The calculation uses raw data rather than anomalies – it includes a large annual cycle due to current orbital eccentricity.   This has in fact implications for ocean thermal inertia and ‘heat in the pipeline’.  Argo measures heat – a measure of ocean energy content.   CERES measures  incoming solar power flux – and outgoing reflected light – shortwave (SW) – and emitted infrared (IR).  So – take incoming solar and subtract from it both the SW and IR to get an average monthly power flux.  The energy in the month is the power flux over time.  If the power flux is positive it means more energy for the month in the ocean heat store.  Cumulative imbalances show the world warming over the record.  The start point is near a local transition between negative and positive imbalances.

excel

Figure 2:  Excel Excerpt

The average imbalance is 0.8 W/m2 – consistent with ocean heat changes.   The trend is to increasing imbalances over the record.  Although the record is still far too short for such to mean much.

energy imbalances

Figure 3:  Average monthly power flux imbalance at TOA

Looking at fields from which the seasonal changes are removed reveals the radiative pattern of low level cloud.  Decreased albedo (less SW reflected) and increased IR emissions with albedo changes net dominant.  This is a pattern consistent with that expected from low level cloud changes.  These are changes of the same order of magnitude as the rate of ocean heat increase.

a)CERES_EBAF-TOA_Ed4.0_anom_TOA_Shortwave_Flux-All-Sky_March-2000toMarch-2018

b)CERES_EBAF-TOA_Ed4.0_anom_TOA_Longwave_Flux-All-Sky_March-2000toMarch-2018

Figure 4:  (a) SW and (b) IR anomalies

The changes are attributable to ENSO and the Pacific state more generally.  The eastern Pacific is where sea surface temperature changes most dramatically driving cloud cover change.  “Marine stratocumulus cloud decks forming over dark, subtropical oceans are regarded as the reflectors of the atmosphere.1 The decks of low clouds 1000s of km in scale reflect back to space a significant portion of the direct solar radiation and therefore dramatically increase the local albedo of areas otherwise characterized by dark oceans below.2,3 This cloud system has been shown to have two stable states: open and closed cells. Closed cell cloud systems have high cloud fraction and are usually shallower, while open cells have low cloud fraction and form thicker clouds mostly over the convective cell walls and therefore have a smaller domain average albedo.4–6 Closed cells tend to be associated with the eastern part of the subtropical oceans, forming over cold water (upwelling areas) and within a low, stable atmospheric marine boundary layer (MBL), while open cells tend to form over warmer water with a deeper MBL. Nevertheless, both states can coexist for a wide range of environmental conditions.5,7” (Koren et al, 2017)

a) 

b) 

Figure 5:  Closed open open cloud cells over the Pacific.

There may indeed be greenhouse gas warming – albeit with little extra warming in the tank.  But this 21st century data again shows something else happening with cloud that is driving ocean temperature.

 

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A Holocene South American warm Pacific sediment record

moy 2002 wavelet

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Environmental Bulls and Bears

Markets need fair, transparent and accessible laws – including on open and equal markets, labor laws, environmental planning and management, consumer protection and whatever else is arrived at in the democratic arena. Optimal tax take is some 23% of GDP and government budgets are balanced. Interest rates are best managed through cash markets to restrain inflation to a 2% to 3% target. These nuts and bolts of market management are mainstream market theory and keep economies on a stable – as far as is possible – growth trajectory.

The best way to foster innovative technology is with private/public partnerships for first of a kind (FOAK) builds. Modular nuclear for instance. In the interim technology should be the best available technology (BAT).  High efficiency low emission coal generation – super clean and lower carbon emissions – are the least that is needed for health and environmental reasons and are the lowest cost option for much prospective global energy demand.  Disrupting energy supplies is potentially destabilizing.

It turns out that economies like climate and climate models are dynamic systems with bells on. They look something like this. Nodes and links.

Best of all they have dragon-kings. Hence the need for stability.

Stability brings with it economic growth and reduced scope for fear and greed. Economic growth is faster in well managed markets in low income regions. This leads to a broadening of economic activity and strong nodes of regional economic activity. North and South Americas, Oceania, Asia, Africa and Europe all have scope to be influential partners in the global economy. Multiple regions of economic strength provide buffers against instability in one region or other. It is no longer the case that the global economy is dominated by one region or another. A mutual interest in trade and growth provides as well a path to peace as countries recognize that co-operation is more fruitful than conflict.

Stable, high growth economies provide resources to solve human and environment problems and the way that is managed is of critical importance.  There are two approaches.  A bottom up approach based on the ideas of Nobel prize winner Elinor Ostrom that now have a global following –  combined with the cross-disciplinary methods of Environmental Science.  Development – including potentially nuclear – is regulated by voluntary but enforceable contracts – with penalties for environmental harm.  Most environmental planning and management is done by private consultants and nothing of value is added by government with their focus on end of pipe regulation with bureaucratic hoops and delays.   This streamlines development while freeing up resources for a broader assessment of environmental priorities.  Or a top down command and control paradigm that is everywhere failing the objective test of environmental conservation.

An Australian Terrestrial Biodiversity Assessment found that riparian zones are declining over 73% of Australia. There has been a massive decline in the ranges of indigenous mammals over more than 100 years. In the past 200 years, 22 Australian mammals have become extinct – a third of the world’s recent extinctions. Further decline in ranges is still occurring and is likely to result in more extinctions. Mammals are declining in 174 of 384 subregions in Australia and rapidly declining in 20. The threats to vascular plants are increasing over much of the Australia. Threatened birds are declining across 45% of the country with extinctions in arid parts of Western Australia. Reptiles are declining across 30% of the country. Threatened amphibians are in decline in southeastern Australia and are rapidly declining in the South East Queensland, Brigalow Belt South and Wet Tropics bioregions.

Our rivers are still carrying huge excesses of sand and mud. The mud washes out onto coastlines destroying seagrass and corals. The sand chokes up pools and riffles and fills billabongs putting intense pressure on inland, aquatic ecologies. In 1992, the Mary River in south east Queensland flooded carrying millions of tonnes of mud into Hervey Bay. A thousand square kilometres of seagrass died off decimating dugongs, turtles and fisheries. The seagrass has grown back but the problems of the Mary River have not been fixed. The banks have not been stabilised and the seagrass could be lost again at any time. A huge excess of sand working its way down the river is driving to extinction the Mary River cod and the Mary River turtle. The situation in the Mary River is mirrored in catchments right across the country. Nationally, 50% of our seagrasses have been lost and it has been this way for at least forty years.

It is well known what the problems are. The causes of the declines in biodiversity are land clearing, land salinisation, land degradation, habitat fragmentation, overgrazing, exotic weeds, feral animals, rivers that have been pushed past their points of equilibrium and changed fire regimes. The individual solutions are often fairly simple and only in aggregate do they become daunting. One of the problems is that the issues are reviewed at a distance. Looking at issues from a National or State perspective is too complex. Even if problems are identified broadly, it is difficult to establish local priorities. Looking at issues from a distance means that a focus on the immediate and fundamental causes of problems is lost. There are rafts of administration, reports, computer models, guidelines and plans but the only on ground restoration and conservation is done by volunteers and farmers. Volunteers are valiantly struggling but it is too little too late. Farmers tend to look at their own properties, understandably, and not at integrated landscape function.

There are solutions to some or all of these problems, scientifically based sustainable grazing and agriculture, replanting and stabilizing riparian zones, restoring fragmented habitat, applying appropriate fire regimes and controlling feral species. It first of all needs political will and a financial commitment. The Australian conservation Foundation and the Farmers Federation estimated that $6 billion a year for twenty years is required to restore Australian landscapes – about half of that from private sources.

A necessary prerequisite is to get environmental science operating on local and regional scales. Environmental science is a new type of science. It is team based incorporating a range of skills – ecology, archaeology, sociology, engineering, economics, lawyers and others. It focuses on specific issues and problems and has all the skills and knowledge needed to assess and, above all, fix problems. There are already thousands of talented and dedicated public servants working in isolation on environmental issues. Put them in balanced teams and get them working in local and regional areas. They need to see, smell, touch and taste environmental problems. They need to get out of the cities and work with local organizations and individuals. They need to live with and be part of local and rural communities.

The existing command and control model for environmental management is inherently incapable of reversing declining Australian environmental trends. Environmental problems are not necessarily technically difficult but they tend to have political, economic and social dimensions that aren’t amenable to legislated controls. Our systems are rules oriented and therefore inflexible. They cannot respond quickly to changes in technology or emerging problems, local or regional variations or changing environments. A move to local, flexible, efficient, autonomous and voluntary systems must occur. In Queensland, the central organising environmental legislation is the Sustainable Planning Act. It specifies a number of activities that trigger assessment under other environmental legislation. The associated environmental legislation is the Environmental ProtectionAct, the Fisheries Act, the Vegetation Management Act, the Coastal Protection and Management Act and the Water Act.

One of the problems of the system is complexity, with thousands of pages of legislation and associated policy and regulation. The Sustainable Planning Act is possibly a perfectly adequate vehicle for town planning, roads, water, building and structural certification, sewerage, storage of flammable materials and a host of other traditional activities. The Environmental Protection Act applies to industry and development. Its main concern is emissions of noise and air and water pollutants. The main outcome is a host of end of the pipe limits on emissions. The Fisheries Act protects marine vegetation and approves structures in marine waters. The Vegetation Management Act rules on clearing of native vegetation on private land. The Coastal Protection and Management Act at least theoretically addresses sustainable development of the coastline. In practice, it approves development in the coastal zone. It applies to very limited areas of the coastline with the bulk left to weeds, 4WD’s, goats, pigs and cats. The Water Act applies to diversion of water resources.

The Productivity Commission reported on regulatory regimes in respect of vegetation but the findings apply equally well to other environmental legislation. The Commission found that there are “several key underlying factors limiting their efficiency and effectiveness in promoting the delivery of the community’s native vegetation and biodiversity goals on private land.

1. Regulation of native vegetation clearing prescribes the means of achieving a range of environmental goals across different regions. However:

(a) there are likely to be other means of achieving at least some desired environmental outcomes at less cost (for example, well-managed pastures may also reduce soil erosion). Moreover, because the costs of regulation are largely borne by landholders, the cost benefit trade-off is obscured.

(b) environmental problems are complex, dynamic and geographically heterogeneous and will require innovative and adaptive solutions drawing on local as well as scientific knowledge. Across-the-board requirements for retention of native vegetation are rigid and preclude innovation. Indeed, retention of native vegetation in some areas perversely appears to be exacerbating some environmental problems; and

(c) ongoing management of native vegetation is essential to ensure its health and regeneration, but regulation of clearing focuses only on preventing its deliberate removal.” In addition to point (a) above, there are likely to be ways of producing better environmental outcomes in more flexible and cooperative regimes.

The Commission recommended empowering regional bodies to pursue integrated environmental, social and economic outcomes.

Laudable as the goals of any single piece of environmental legislation may be, the larger picture is not addressed in a manner that integrates science, society and the economy and at the same time provides for conservation and restoration of our landscapes. The legislation applies to part of the problem but leaves huge gaps where the decline of ecological systems continues unabated. Next generation environmental approvals are needed to save money and to redirect those resources into achieving better environmental outcomes. In Queensland, the way forward must be to exclude the environmental legislation from the Sustainable Planning Act. Reassign staff from the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Primary Industries, the Department of Natural Resources and Mines and Parks and Wildlife into interacting teams of environmental scientists working at local, regional, State and even National levels. Keep the environmental triggers in the Sustainable Planning Act, by all means, by making them notifiable activities. Subject activities to integrated assessment but make compliance voluntary and enforced by contract. This would streamline processes tremendously and allow people to get on with higher priority and broader environmental conservation goals. If agreement can’t be reached, refer it to the political sphere where decisions should always have been. Provide for statutory timeframes. Keep criminal sanctions for proved environmental harm.

The alternative to hierarchical, compartmentalized, over legalized and failing approaches is gives the prospect of better outcomes all around.  Environmental science teams are comprised of biologists, engineers, lawyers and even non professionals – farmers and greens – anyone who can work cooperatively to solve problems. Above all, they must have a brief to assess and solve problems of air and water pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, land clearing, land degradation, salinisation, habitat fragmentation, weeds, feral animals and fires across the entire landscape but focusing on the local and specific solutions. Their role would be to plan, tender out to contractors and farmers and monitor solutions working, necessarily, transparently and accountably.

Well funded, locally based and broadly skilled teams are the way forward. A broad range of skills are needed to solve environmental problems working at local and regional levels. There are three elements to sustainability, the welfare of current and future generations and the conservation of biodiversity on which all life ultimately depends. For one objective measure of sustainability, the unfortunate truth is that the trend to declining biological diversity has not been reversed over the past forty or more years. The urgency of now doing so should be apparent to everyone.

 

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Synergistic Technologies for Energy Futures

My vision for energy futures involves the emergence of synergistic technologies. Implementation in the real world can only succeed with cost competitive products.

High temperature modular nuclear providing baseload electricity but also – at periods of lower demand – electricity for carbon capture and heat and power for efficient high temperature production of hydrogen and oxygen from water.

https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-production-thermochemical-water-splitting

Hydrogen can be catalyzed with carbon dioxide to produce liquid fuels for efficient linear generators powering efficient and powerful electric motors for transport.

https://www.proteanelectric.com/

Combine this with a high capacity low cost supercapacitor bank for that racing start.

“Supercapacitors have many advantages. For instance, they maintain a long cycle lifetime—they can be cycled hundreds of thousands times with minimal change in performance. A supercapacitor’s lifetime spans 10 to 20 years, and the capacity might reduce from 100% to 80% after 10 or so years. Thanks to their low equivalent series resistance (ESR), supercapacitors provide high power density and high load currents to achieve almost instant charge in seconds. Temperature performance is also strong, delivering energy in temperatures as low as –40°C.”
http://www.electronicdesign.com/power/can-supercapacitors-surpass-batteries-energy-storage

In my future Paris-Dakar entry. Not because it is low emission – but because it is fun.

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Voices of climate reason

The problem with knowing a few simple things about the Earth system is that there is always a dynamic, deterministic chaotic planet of unknowns out there.

The problem with chaos is catastrophe – in the sense of Rene Thom.

bifurcations

“Technically, an abrupt climate change occurs when the climate system is forced to cross some threshold, triggering a transition to a new state at a rate determined by the climate system itself and faster than the cause. Chaotic processes in the climate system may allow the cause of such an abrupt climate change to be undetectably small.” NAS Committee on abrupt climate change 2002

Regardless of what you think you may know or not know about Earth system science –  the rational response is the same.

“This pragmatic strategy centers on efforts to accelerate energy innovation, build resilience to extreme weather, and pursue no regrets pollution reduction measures — three efforts that each have their own diverse justifications independent of their benefits for climate mitigation and adaptation.” Pragmatic Climate – Breakthrough Institute 

One thing I know is that in the order of 100 billion tonnes of carbon is much better restored to soils and ecosystems than in the atmosphere – for a much more inspiring purpose.

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